Britain’s economy faces a potential skills shortage as new official figures show a surge in EU migrants leaving the country in the year of the Brexit vote.
Business groups warned that a sharp fall in net migration last year, driven by a dramatic increase in EU nationals fleeing the UK, meant employers risk “losing key members of staff in positions that cannot easily be replaced”.
The Office for National Statistics estimated long-term net migration to be 248,000 in 2016, down a “statistically significant” 84,000 from 2015.
The net change was driven by a big increase in EU citizens leaving the country as well as a smaller fall in people coming to the UK.
The ONS says around 117,000 EU citizens left the UK in 2016, an increase of 31,000 on 2015 and the highest recorded estimate since 2009.
Those who left were mostly EU8 citizens – a group which includes citizens of Poland, the Czech Republic, the Baltics and Hungary.
Notably, the number of people moving to the UK to study at its universities also fell by 32,000 to 136,000.
The Government has repeatedly refused to confirm whether EU citizens will have a right to stay in the UK after Brexit negotiations despite calls to do so. The exodus could also be driven by a sharp recorded increase in anti-foreigner hate crimes since the European Union referendum. Police figures showing increases are concentrated in areas that voted mostly strongly to leave the UK.
EU migrants contributed around £20bn to the UK’s public finances between 2000 and 2011, and paid billions more in taxes than they received in welfare payments.
Stephen Clarke, Economic Analyst at the Resolution Foundation, said: “The sharp fall in migration since the referendum shows that British businesses need to start preparing now for a big shift in the labour market, even before we leave the EU.
“Rising emigration among EU nationals, particularly from Eastern Europe, means that many firms would be wise to rethink their investment, recruitment and training policies.
“What businesses also need during this election campaign is far more clarity from political parties about what their post-Brexit migration policy will be. The choices we make about post-Brexit Britain’s approach to migration will mean a fundamental shift in the way many run their business – the time to start preparing for that is now.”
Despite the fall, net migration is still far above the Government’s target of 100,000, which David Cameron committed to in 2010 and re-iterated in 2015.